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The
fatal crash rate for 16-year-old drivers declined sharply
after states began enacting graduated licensing laws in
the 1990s. Fatal crash involvements based on the population
of 16 year-olds fell 26 percent during 1993-2003. This is
the main finding of a new Insurance Institute for Highway
Safety study.
|
Licensing
of 16-year-old drivers and fatal crash rates
involving 16-year-old drivers
|
|
|
Percentage
of 16 year-olds licensed
|
Fatal
crashes per 100,000 population
|
|
1993
|
42
|
31
|
|
1994
|
42
|
32
|
|
1995
|
43
|
35
|
|
1996
|
41
|
33
|
|
1997
|
43
|
31
|
|
1998
|
43
|
29
|
|
1999
|
37
|
29
|
|
2000
|
37
|
26
|
|
2001
|
34
|
24
|
|
2002
|
32
|
27
|
|
2003
|
31
|
23
|
|
|
The
overall number of 16-year-old drivers in fatal crashes decreased
from 1,084 in 1993 to 938 in 2003, while during the same
period there was an 18 percent increase in the 16-year-old
population.
"This
isn't a study of graduated licensing per se. It's a look
at the status of 16 year-olds in states both with and without
graduated licensing," says Susan Ferguson, Institute
senior vice president for research. "Still, this study
does reveal some very positive effects of the new licensing
systems. The main reason for the decline in the crash rate
is that fewer beginning drivers are getting their licenses
when they turn 16."
While
the population-based ratio of fatal crash involvements declined,
the 2003 rate based on the number of licensed drivers didn't
change compared with the 1993 rate. Seventy-three 16-year-old
drivers per 100,000 license holders were in fatal crashes
in 1993. This compares with 74 per 100,000 in 2003.
"In
time we do expect to see a drop in the fatal crash rates
per licensed 16-year-old driver," Ferguson says. "This
will happen if more states implement stronger restrictions
on night driving and on passengers in cars with beginning
drivers. A number of states don't have these policies, and
states that do often allow one or more passengers or apply
the restrictions during short time periods. These restrictions
are expected to have the strongest influence on fatal crashes
per licensed driver. In the meantime, studies in several
states that have looked at all police-reported crashes,
not just fatal ones, have found significant declines per
licensed driver."
Teenagers
have the highest crash risk of any age group - about four
times higher than for older drivers - and are more likely
than older drivers to be in crashes involving driver error
and speeding.
(CONTINUE...)
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